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Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 12/22/09

December 23rd, 2009, 10:12 am admin Leave a comment Go to comments

Not much to prop up the ole holiday spirit in tonight’s edition of the Wrap (or, as the incomparable James L. over at Swing State put it earlier today: “A fresh dose of suck”).

A Democratic candidate with huge potential in a red district stands down, a prominent Dem’s own internal polls show him getting beat, and Michele Bachmann’s constituents actually seem to like her.

Bah freaking humbug. On with the Tuesday edition of the Wrap…

CT-Sen: Dodd’s Own Polling Says…Well…He Has A Shot!!
Normally, it is time to get very depressed when your own internal polling has you down five points to one challenger, and tied with another one. In the case of Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd, however, that might be a sign that things are headed in the right direction. The new survey, conducted for Dodd by Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner (a Democratic pollster, but one with a solid, solid reputation), has Dodd trailing GOP frontrunner Rob Simmons by five points (51-46), while running dead even with WWE executive Linda McMahon (46-46). The campaign is hinging their hopes, in no small part, on an “informed ballot” test that they ran on both of the GOP candidates (neither of whom, to be fair, are household names with universal name recognition). When info was read about all three candidates, Dodd moved into leads of one point (Simmons) or five points (McMahon). Another morsel of hope for team Dodd, in a blue state like Connecticut, the Democratic Party brand (+14 favorability: 49/35) is held in far higher esteem than the GOP (-20 favorability; 29/49).

MN-06: Bachmann Appears Well-Positioned For 2010
In a sign that her already reddish-tinted district has lurched even further to the right, far-right Congresswoman Michele Bachman holds double-digit leads over either of her prospective Democratic opponents in 2010, according to a new poll from the crew at PPP (PDF File). Bachmann leads state legislator Tarryl Clark by eighteen points (55-37) and former statewide Independence Party candidate Maureen Reed by sixteen points (53-37). What’s more, Bachmann actually enjoys a 53% job approval in her district, which is comprised of a set of GOP-friendly counties to the northwest of the Twin Cities.

KY-Sen: Paul, Conway Leaders in Senate Primaries
Earlier today, Markos brought the intriguing news that physician and Ron Paul progeny Rand Paul has opened up a nineteen-point edge in the GOP Senate primary in Kentucky over Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson. In other news from that PPP poll, we find that state Attorney General Jack Conway has opened up his first lead of the campaign, with a four point (37-33) edge in his battle with state Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo. Interestingly, in a sign of how politically irrelevant being a statewide officeholder other than a Governor can be, only Mongiardo (whose standing with his own party is fairly mediocre: 40/27) has name recognition that exceeds 50%.

SC-Gov: GOP Primary Tight, With Huge Implications for General
Potentially big news emerges from a poll taken this week by Insider Advantage in the Palmetto State. Looking at the Republican primary in the battle to replace disgraced Republican Governor Mark Sanford, IA finds a dead heat between state Attorney General Henry McMaster and state Lt. Governor Andre Bauer, who are deadlocked at 22%. On the Democratic side, Jim Rex, the state schools chief, has an edge over the field (albeit a modest one). The deadlock on the GOP side is notable because McMaster, in recent polling, has performed much better in general election trial heats than has Bauer, who actually has trailed Rex by a point or two in recent polling.


  • Follow me over at  Twitter. Because you really want political commentary. Even more so, because you really want to hear me complain about the pathetic state of my bowl pool after only the third of 34 (34?!?) bowls.
  • TX-10: If Parker Griffith’s defection was predictable, this bit of bad news today came as a total blindside: Jack McDonald, the Democratic businessman who had been one of the most impressive recruits of the 2010 cycle for the Blue Team, dropped his Congressional bid today, citing concerns related to his business. McDonald was planning to battle Republican Congressman Michael McCaul, whose district went from 67% Bush to just 55% McCain in four years.
  • GA-Gov: Electing to do that which Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison would not, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, a Republican candidate for Governor next year, announced that she will resign her post in order to devote her full attention to her gubernatorial bid. Handel is chasing GOP frontrunner John Oxendine, the state insurance commissioner and leader in every GOP primary poll to date. The GOP nominee is likely to face former Democratic Governor Roy Barnes (1999-2003), who is seeking a political second act by returning to the Governor’s office.
  • NV-Gov: Those organizations seeking to award their “Man of the Year” awards might want to keep Nevada’s GOP Governor, Jim Gibbons, on their short list. In a court filing exposed by the Reno Gazette-Journal, Gibbons is seeking to not have to pay alimony to his soon-to-be-ex-wife Dawn Gibbons past 2011, on the grounds that he might not win re-election as Governor next year.

    To that, the judge should have only issued one response: “Might not win re-election, Governor?!?”

  • NY-Sen: What was widely speculated last night became reality today: Rudy Giuliani made it official that he would not be a candidate for any political office in 2010. In a postscript that is nothing short of amusing, Giuliani insists that his flirtation with office in 2010, and ultimate decision to stand down, has no bearing on whether or not he makes a future political bid.

    Someone needs to tell Rudy that…yes, indeed…it is over. He proved in 2008 that he has absolutely no aptitude for running a national campaign. And it is impossible to fathom the New York GOP opening its arms to Rudy again after having been teased, and then spurned, in 2000 and 2010.

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